Kenya Police vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Kenya Police35%
Nzoia Sugar38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 13 home / 111 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kenya Police ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kenya Police at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches
Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kenya Police attack 1.15 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23
Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Kenya Police defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.28
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Nzoia Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
GOR Mahia
AFC Leopards
Police
Nairobi United
Shabana
Homeboyz
KCB
Tusker
APS Bomet
Mara Sugar
Bandari
Murang'a SEAL
Ulinzi Stars
Mathare United
Posta Rangers FC
Kariobangi Sharks
Bidco United
Sofapaka
NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kenya Police host Nzoia Sugar on Wednesday, 20 October 2021 at 10:15. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
FKF Premier League: Kenya Police 3–1 Nzoia Sugar
Kenya Police beat Nzoia Sugar 3-1 in FKF Premier League on October 20, 2021.
The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.