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Kenya Police vs Nakuru AllStars — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
2 – 0
Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
9/19/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kenya Police56%
×Draw26%
Nakuru AllStars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.50
Nakuru AllStars
0.71

Kenya Police creates 111% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.25
Nakuru AllStars
0.53

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.88
Nakuru AllStars
1.76

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Nakuru AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
82%
Kenya Police or Nakuru AllStars
74%
Draw or Nakuru AllStars
44%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
29%
Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
78%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
44%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
19%
Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
51%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
16%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
76%
Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.25 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.53 + Kenya Police defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kenya Police scores more
56%
level
26%
Nakuru AllStars scores more
18%

Kenya Police at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kenya Police 2–0 Nakuru AllStars

Kenya Police beat Nakuru AllStars 2-0 in Super League on September 19, 2018.