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Kenya Police vs Nairobi City Stars — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
9/29/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kenya Police47%
×Draw28%
Nairobi City Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.35
Nairobi City Stars
0.90

Kenya Police creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.41
Nairobi City Stars
0.86

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.94
Nairobi City Stars
1.29

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
75%
Kenya Police or Nairobi City Stars
72%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
53%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
22%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
74%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
39%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
15%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
59%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
23%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
65%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.41 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Nairobi City Stars attack 0.86 + Kenya Police defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kenya Police scores more
47%
level
28%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
25%

Kenya Police at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenya Police vs Nairobi City Stars

Kenya Police and Nairobi City Stars drew 0-0 in Super League on September 29, 2018.