Kenya Police 3–2 Modern Coast Rangers

Kenya Police

FT

3 – 2

Modern Coast Rangers

2/25/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kenya Police49%

×Draw27%

Modern Coast Rangers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kenya PoliceExpected goals in this matchModern Coast Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.94

Kenya Police

1.44

Modern Coast Rangers

0.94

Kenya Police creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kenya Police

1.41

Modern Coast Rangers

0.94

allows per match

Kenya Police

0.94

Modern Coast Rangers

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw

75%

Kenya Police or Modern Coast Rangers

73%

Draw or Modern Coast Rangers

51%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+

24%

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals

76%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

42%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

18%

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals

61%

Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals

24%

Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

66%

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.41 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.94 + Kenya Police defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kenya Police scores more

49%

level

27%

Modern Coast Rangers scores more

25%

Kenya Police at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff