Kenya Police 0–2 Kibera Black Stars: Result & Stats

Kenya Police

FT

0 – 2

Kibera Black Stars

8/23/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kenya Police45%

×Draw29%

Kibera Black Stars27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kenya PoliceExpected goals in this matchKibera Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.92

Kenya Police

1.28

Kibera Black Stars

0.92

Kenya Police creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

1.25

creates per match

0.95

0.88

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Kenya Police

1.25

Kibera Black Stars

0.95

allows per match

Kenya Police

0.88

Kibera Black Stars

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Kibera Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw

73%

Kenya Police or Kibera Black Stars

71%

Draw or Kibera Black Stars

55%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+

20%

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals

72%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

37%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

14%

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

60%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

23%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

63%

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.25 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Kenya Police defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kenya Police scores more

45%

level

29%

Kibera Black Stars scores more

27%

Kenya Police at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff