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Kenya Police vs Isibania — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
0 – 0
Isibania
Isibania
3/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kenya Police60%
×Draw25%
Isibania15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.59
Isibania
0.66

Kenya Police creates 141% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.25
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.88
Isibania
1.94

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
85%
Kenya Police or Isibania
75%
Draw or Isibania
40%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
33%
Isibania wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
80%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
47%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
21%
Isibania 1+ goals
48%
Isibania 2+ goals
14%
Isibania 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
80%
Isibania (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.25 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Isibania attack 0.44 + Kenya Police defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kenya Police scores more
60%
level
25%
Isibania scores more
15%

Kenya Police at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kenya Police 0–0 Isibania

Kenya Police and Isibania drew 0-0 in Super League on March 7, 2018.