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Kenya Police vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
0 – 0
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
2/10/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kenya Police41%
×Draw28%
FC Talanta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.29
FC Talanta
1.08

Kenya Police creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.41
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.94
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
69%
Kenya Police or FC Talanta
72%
Draw or FC Talanta
59%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
19%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
72%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
37%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
14%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
66%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
29%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
57%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.41 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + Kenya Police defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kenya Police scores more
41%
level
28%
FC Talanta scores more
31%

Kenya Police at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kenya Police 0–0 FC Talanta

Kenya Police and FC Talanta drew 0-0 in Super League on February 10, 2018.