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Kenya Police vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
4/3/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 22Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kenya Police30%
×Draw27%
AFC Leopards43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.09
AFC Leopards
1.35

AFC Leopards creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 146 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.15
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Kenya Police
1.54
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
57%
Kenya Police or AFC Leopards
73%
Draw or AFC Leopards
70%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
12%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
66%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
30%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
10%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
74%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
39%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
41%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.15 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Kenya Police defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kenya Police scores more
30%
level
27%
AFC Leopards scores more
43%

AFC Leopards at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenya Police vs AFC Leopards

AFC Leopards beat Kenya Police 3-0 in FKF Premier League on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.