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Hegelmann Litauen vs Kaunas — 1 Lyga 2016

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
FT
5 – 0
Kaunas
Kaunas
6/7/20161 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen79%
×Draw12%
Kaunas9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann Litauen
3.70
Kaunas
1.29

Hegelmann Litauen creates 187% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen
2.72
Kaunas
1.67

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen
0.92
Kaunas
4.67

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par
Kaunas+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Kaunas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw
91%
Hegelmann Litauen or Kaunas
88%
Draw or Kaunas
21%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
62%
Kaunas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
97%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
87%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
69%
Kaunas 1+ goals
72%
Kaunas 2+ goals
37%
Kaunas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
89%
Kaunas (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Kaunas away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 2.72 + Kaunas defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.70

Kaunas attack 1.67 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more
79%
level
12%
Kaunas scores more
9%

Hegelmann Litauen at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hegelmann Litauen vs Kaunas

Hegelmann Litauen beat Kaunas 5-0 in 1 Lyga on June 7, 2016.

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas in Kaunas.