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Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners — A-League 2015

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
B. Fornaroli 72', 53'
P. Kisnorbo 11'
N. Fitzgerald 13'
10/25/2015A-LeagueA-League · Round 3AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Melbourne City50%
×Draw23%
Central Coast Mariners26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.81
Central Coast Mariners
1.25

Melbourne City creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
1.39
Central Coast Mariners
1.15

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.34
Central Coast Mariners
2.22

finishing

Melbourne City-0.22scores less
Central Coast Mariners+0.05on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
74%
Melbourne City or Central Coast Mariners
77%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
50%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
28%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
84%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
54%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
27%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
71%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
36%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
66%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 6 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.22 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 1.39 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.81

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.15 + Melbourne City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne City scores more
50%
level
23%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
26%

Melbourne City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. MooyMelbourne CityMelbourne City · M
8.7

Match Events

4'
Fábio Ferreira
11'
P. Kisnorbo
13'
N. Fitzgerald
26'
Ben Garuccio
50'
D. Williams← S. Zinni
53'
B. Fornaroli
54'
C. Gameiro← S. Kuzmanovski
58'
Nick Montgomery
60'
L. Rose← N. Montgomery
72'
B. Fornaroli
74'
G. Trifiro← M. Austin
81'
J. Trifiro← S. Mauk
82'
D. Heffernan← H. Ascroft
89'
Jacob Melling
90'
David Williams

Possession

52%Melbourne

Shots

19Melbourne

Pass accuracy

51%Melbourne

Statistics

MelbourneCentral
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots18
2Corners5
0Fouls0
Shots
19Total Shots18
9On Target3
7Off Target11
3Blocked4
14Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
415Total Passes351
308Accurate Passes253
74%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
0Fouls0
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides7

A-League: Melbourne City 3–1 Central Coast Mariners

Melbourne City beat Central Coast Mariners 3-1 in A-League on October 25, 2015.

Goals: P. Kisnorbo (11'), N. Fitzgerald (13'), B. Fornaroli (53', 72').

Melbourne City controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 18.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.