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Kenkre vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Kenkre
Kenkre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
5/1/2022I-LeagueI-League · Relegation Round - 4Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kenkre29%
×Draw26%
Real Kashmir44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenkre
1.11
Real Kashmir
1.43

Real Kashmir creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Kenkre
1.07
Real Kashmir
1.12

allows per match

Kenkre
1.73
Real Kashmir
1.15

finishing

Kenkre+0.00on par
Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenkre ↓

Real Kashmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kenkre or draw
56%
Kenkre or Real Kashmir
74%
Draw or Real Kashmir
71%

Winning margin

Kenkre wins by 2+
11%
Real Kashmir wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kenkre 1+ goals
67%
Kenkre 2+ goals
30%
Kenkre 3+ goals
10%
Real Kashmir 1+ goals
76%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
42%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kenkre (draw refunded)
40%
Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenkre at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenkre attack 1.07 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Kenkre defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kenkre scores more
29%
level
26%
Real Kashmir scores more
44%

Real Kashmir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenkre vs Real Kashmir

Kenkre beat Real Kashmir 1-0 in I-League on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.