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Kenkre vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Kenkre
Kenkre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NEROCA
NEROCA
11/29/2022I-LeagueI-League · Round 4The Cooperage Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kenkre41%
×Draw24%
NEROCA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenkre
1.59
NEROCA
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kenkre
1.07
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Kenkre
1.73
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Kenkre+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenkre ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kenkre or draw
65%
Kenkre or NEROCA
76%
Draw or NEROCA
59%

Winning margin

Kenkre wins by 2+
20%
NEROCA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kenkre 1+ goals
80%
Kenkre 2+ goals
47%
Kenkre 3+ goals
21%
NEROCA 1+ goals
77%
NEROCA 2+ goals
43%
NEROCA 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kenkre (draw refunded)
54%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenkre at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenkre attack 1.07 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.59

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Kenkre defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kenkre scores more
41%
level
24%
NEROCA scores more
35%

Kenkre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kenkre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kenkre 0 – 1 NEROCA

NEROCA beat Kenkre 1-0 in I-League on November 29, 2022.

The match was played at The Cooperage Ground in Mumbai, Mahārāṣṭra.