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KemPa vs KePS — Suomen Cup 2018

KemPa
KemPa
FT
0 – 3
KePS
KePS
4/10/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundJunkohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KemPa63%
×Draw17%
KePS20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KemPa
2.79
KePS
1.55

KemPa creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

KemPa
4.00
KePS
1.43

allows per match

KemPa
1.67
KePS
1.57

finishing

KemPa+0.00on par
KePS+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KemPa ↓

KePS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

KemPa or draw
80%
KemPa or KePS
83%
Draw or KePS
37%

Winning margin

KemPa wins by 2+
42%
KePS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KemPa 1+ goals
94%
KemPa 2+ goals
76%
KemPa 3+ goals
52%
KePS 1+ goals
79%
KePS 2+ goals
46%
KePS 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KemPa (draw refunded)
76%
KePS (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KemPa at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

KePS away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KemPa attack 4.00 + KePS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.79

KePS attack 1.43 + KemPa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

KemPa scores more
63%
level
17%
KePS scores more
20%

KemPa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KemPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KemPa vs KePS

KePS beat KemPa 3-0 in Suomen Cup on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Junkohalli in Kemi.