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Kematen vs Söll — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kematen
Kematen
CANC
00:00
Söll
Söll
4/10/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 20Sportplatz Kematen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kematen73%
×Draw15%
Söll13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kematen
3.03
Söll
1.23

Kematen creates 146% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kematen
2.06
Söll
0.94

allows per match

Kematen
1.51
Söll
4.00

finishing

Kematen+0.00on par
Söll+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kematen ↓

Söll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Kematen or draw
87%
Kematen or Söll
85%
Draw or Söll
27%

Winning margin

Kematen wins by 2+
53%
Söll wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kematen 1+ goals
95%
Kematen 2+ goals
80%
Kematen 3+ goals
57%
Söll 1+ goals
71%
Söll 2+ goals
35%
Söll 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kematen (draw refunded)
85%
Söll (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kematen at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

Söll away — creates 0.94, concedes 4.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kematen attack 2.06 + Söll defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.03

Söll attack 0.94 + Kematen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kematen scores more
73%
level
15%
Söll scores more
13%

Kematen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kematen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kematen host Söll

April 10, 2021: Kematen take on Söll in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kematen host Söll at Sportplatz Kematen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.