Kematen 3–2 Natters: Result & Stats

Kematen

FT

3 – 2

Natters

9/30/2022

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 11Sportplatz Kematen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kematen51%

×Draw21%

Natters28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KematenExpected goals in this matchNatters

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.53

Kematen

2.12

Natters

1.53

Kematen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 44 away

2.06

creates per match

1.55

1.51

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Kematen

2.06

Natters

1.55

allows per match

Kematen

1.51

Natters

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kematen+0.00on par

Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kematen ↓

Natters →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kematen or draw

72%

Kematen or Natters

79%

Draw or Natters

49%

Winning margin

Kematen wins by 2+

30%

Natters wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kematen 1+ goals

88%

Kematen 2+ goals

62%

Kematen 3+ goals

35%

Natters 1+ goals

78%

Natters 2+ goals

45%

Natters 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kematen (draw refunded)

65%

Natters (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kematen at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kematen attack 2.06 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.12

Natters attack 1.55 + Kematen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kematen scores more

51%

level

21%

Natters scores more

28%

Kematen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kematen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff