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Kematen vs Münster — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kematen
Kematen
FT
4 – 1
Münster
Münster
8/13/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 4Sportplatz Kematen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kematen56%
×Draw21%
Münster23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kematen
2.18
Münster
1.34

Kematen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kematen
2.06
Münster
1.17

allows per match

Kematen
1.51
Münster
2.30

finishing

Kematen+0.00on par
Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kematen ↓

Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kematen or draw
77%
Kematen or Münster
79%
Draw or Münster
44%

Winning margin

Kematen wins by 2+
34%
Münster wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kematen 1+ goals
89%
Kematen 2+ goals
64%
Kematen 3+ goals
37%
Münster 1+ goals
74%
Münster 2+ goals
39%
Münster 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kematen (draw refunded)
71%
Münster (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kematen at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

Münster away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kematen attack 2.06 + Münster defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.18

Münster attack 1.17 + Kematen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kematen scores more
56%
level
21%
Münster scores more
23%

Kematen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kematen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kematen vs Münster

Kematen beat Münster 4-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Kematen in Kematen.