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Kematen vs Mayrhofen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kematen
Kematen
FT
4 – 2
Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
6/7/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 28Sportplatz Kematen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kematen53%
×Draw20%
Mayrhofen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kematen
2.43
Mayrhofen
1.72

Kematen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kematen
2.06
Mayrhofen
1.93

allows per match

Kematen
1.51
Mayrhofen
2.80

finishing

Kematen+0.00on par
Mayrhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kematen ↓

Mayrhofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Kematen or draw
73%
Kematen or Mayrhofen
80%
Draw or Mayrhofen
47%

Winning margin

Kematen wins by 2+
33%
Mayrhofen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kematen 1+ goals
91%
Kematen 2+ goals
69%
Kematen 3+ goals
43%
Mayrhofen 1+ goals
82%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
51%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kematen (draw refunded)
66%
Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kematen at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

Mayrhofen away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kematen attack 2.06 + Mayrhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.43

Mayrhofen attack 1.93 + Kematen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kematen scores more
53%
level
20%
Mayrhofen scores more
27%

Kematen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kematen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kematen vs Mayrhofen

Kematen beat Mayrhofen 4-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on June 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Kematen in Kematen.