Kelty Hearts 1–2 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Kelty Hearts

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ST Johnstone

10/7/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 2New Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kelty Hearts22%

×Draw27%

ST Johnstone52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelty HeartsExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.46

Kelty Hearts

0.84

ST Johnstone

1.46

ST Johnstone creates 74% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

0.73

creates per match

1.74

1.18

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Kelty Hearts

0.73

ST Johnstone

1.74

allows per match

Kelty Hearts

1.18

ST Johnstone

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

ST Johnstone →

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw

48%

Kelty Hearts or ST Johnstone

73%

Draw or ST Johnstone

78%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

57%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

21%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

77%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

43%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

30%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 0.73 + ST Johnstone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

ST Johnstone attack 1.74 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more

22%

level

27%

ST Johnstone scores more

52%

ST Johnstone at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff