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Kelty Hearts vs Partick — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
FT
2 – 3
Partick
Partick
6/26/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3New Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kelty Hearts22%
×Draw22%
Partick56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelty Hearts
1.17
Partick
2.00

Partick creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kelty Hearts
1.33
Partick
1.67

allows per match

Kelty Hearts
2.33
Partick
1.00

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par
Partick+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

Partick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw
44%
Kelty Hearts or Partick
78%
Draw or Partick
78%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+
9%
Partick wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals
69%
Kelty Hearts 2+ goals
33%
Kelty Hearts 3+ goals
11%
Partick 1+ goals
86%
Partick 2+ goals
59%
Partick 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)
28%
Partick (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Partick away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 1.33 + Partick defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Partick attack 1.67 + Kelty Hearts defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more
22%
level
22%
Partick scores more
56%

Partick at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kelty Hearts 2–3 Partick

Partick beat Kelty Hearts 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at New Central Park in Kelty.