Kelty Hearts 1–1 Montrose: Result & Stats

Kelty Hearts

FT

1 – 1

Montrose

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3New Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kelty Hearts28%

×Draw23%

Montrose49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelty HeartsExpected goals in this matchMontrose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.83

Kelty Hearts

1.33

Montrose

1.83

Montrose creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

2.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kelty Hearts

1.33

Montrose

1.33

allows per match

Kelty Hearts

2.33

Montrose

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Montrose+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

Montrose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw

51%

Kelty Hearts or Montrose

77%

Draw or Montrose

72%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

12%

Montrose wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

74%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

38%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

15%

Montrose 1+ goals

84%

Montrose 2+ goals

54%

Montrose 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

36%

Montrose (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Montrose away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 1.33 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Montrose attack 1.33 + Kelty Hearts defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more

28%

level

23%

Montrose scores more

49%

Montrose at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff