Kelty Hearts 2–1 Jeanfield Swifts: Result & Stats

Kelty Hearts

2 – 1

Jeanfield Swifts

12/26/2020

FA Cup · 1st RoundNew Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kelty Hearts30%

×Draw22%

Jeanfield Swifts49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelty HeartsExpected goals in this matchJeanfield Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.02

Kelty Hearts

1.55

Jeanfield Swifts

2.02

Jeanfield Swifts creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

2.71

1.33

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Kelty Hearts

1.67

Jeanfield Swifts

2.71

allows per match

Kelty Hearts

1.33

Jeanfield Swifts

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw

51%

Kelty Hearts or Jeanfield Swifts

78%

Draw or Jeanfield Swifts

70%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

14%

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

79%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

46%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

20%

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

87%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

60%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

38%

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 1.67 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more

30%

level

22%

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

49%

Jeanfield Swifts at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff