Kelty Hearts 3–2 Brora Rangers: Result & Stats

Kelty Hearts

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Brora Rangers

F. Moffett 90+1'

R. Shanley 37', 10'

C. Bunce 65'

J. Wallace 29'

7/21/2026

League Cup · Group StageNew Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kelty Hearts62%

×Draw21%

Brora Rangers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelty HeartsExpected goals in this matchBrora Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.91

Kelty Hearts

1.96

Brora Rangers

0.91

Kelty Hearts creates 115% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

0.92

creates per match

0.57

1.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kelty Hearts

0.92

Brora Rangers

0.57

allows per match

Kelty Hearts

1.25

Brora Rangers

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

Brora Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw

83%

Kelty Hearts or Brora Rangers

79%

Draw or Brora Rangers

38%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

37%

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

86%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

58%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

31%

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

60%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

23%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

79%

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 0.92 + Brora Rangers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Brora Rangers attack 0.57 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more

62%

level

21%

Brora Rangers scores more

17%

Kelty Hearts at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Shanley↳ D. Corr

21'

R. Shanley

29'

J. Wallace↳ B. Gardiner

37'

R. Shanley↳ R. Cunningham

46'

A. Kerr← J. Wallace

46'

S. Sutherland← J. Anderson

60'

J. Rodgers

64'

Trialist← K. Higginbotham

64'

F. Moffett← C. McManus

65'

C. Bunce↳ J. Rodgers

67'

A. Ferguson

73'

A. Wilson← A. Sutherland

74'

G. Walker← C. Flatman

80'

I. Murray← L. Moore

84'

T. Dingwall← C. MacKenzie

86'

G. Pullen

90+1'

F. Moffett↳ J. Brydon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff