Kelty Hearts 0–2 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Kelty Hearts

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Albion Rovers

7/16/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 4New Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kelty Hearts57%

×Draw24%

Albion Rovers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelty HeartsExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.93

Kelty Hearts

1.75

Albion Rovers

0.93

Kelty Hearts creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

0.73

creates per match

0.67

1.18

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Kelty Hearts

0.73

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Kelty Hearts

1.18

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw

80%

Kelty Hearts or Albion Rovers

76%

Draw or Albion Rovers

43%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

32%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

83%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

52%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

25%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

61%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

24%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

74%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 0.73 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more

57%

level

24%

Albion Rovers scores more

20%

Kelty Hearts at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff