Kelen 2–2 Teskánd: Result & Stats

Kelen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Teskánd

B. Babinszky 75' (pen)

B. Vass 29'

B. Szinay 88', 44'

3/29/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 28Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kelen54%

×Draw22%

Teskánd24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KelenExpected goals in this matchTeskánd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.29

Kelen

2.02

Teskánd

1.29

Kelen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.08

creates per match

1.47

1.11

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Kelen

1.08

Teskánd

1.47

allows per match

Kelen

1.11

Teskánd

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par

Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Teskánd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kelen or draw

76%

Kelen or Teskánd

78%

Draw or Teskánd

46%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+

32%

Teskánd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals

87%

Kelen 2+ goals

60%

Kelen 3+ goals

33%

Teskánd 1+ goals

72%

Teskánd 2+ goals

37%

Teskánd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)

69%

Teskánd (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kelen scores more

54%

level

22%

Teskánd scores more

24%

Kelen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

B. Vass

44'

B. Szinay

75'

B. BabinszkyPenalty

88'

B. Szinay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff