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Kelen vs Komárom — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Komárom
Komárom
4/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 34Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kelen41%
×Draw26%
Komárom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.39
Komárom
1.20

Kelen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 67 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.08
Komárom
1.28

allows per match

Kelen
1.11
Komárom
1.69

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
Komárom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Komárom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
68%
Kelen or Komárom
74%
Draw or Komárom
59%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
19%
Komárom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
75%
Kelen 2+ goals
40%
Kelen 3+ goals
16%
Komárom 1+ goals
70%
Komárom 2+ goals
34%
Komárom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
56%
Komárom (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Komárom away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + Komárom defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Komárom attack 1.28 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kelen scores more
41%
level
26%
Komárom scores more
32%

Kelen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Kelen 0–1 Komárom

Komárom beat Kelen 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.