Kelantan United 1–3 Kedah: Result & Stats

Kelantan United

1 – 3

Kedah

11/6/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Sultan Mohammad IV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kelantan United26%

×Draw22%

Kedah52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelantan UnitedExpected goals in this matchKedah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.94

Kelantan United

1.31

Kedah

1.94

Kedah creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

0.71

creates per match

1.73

2.14

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Kelantan United

0.71

Kedah

1.73

allows per match

Kelantan United

2.14

Kedah

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelantan United+0.00on par

Kedah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelantan United ↓

Kedah →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kelantan United or draw

48%

Kelantan United or Kedah

78%

Draw or Kedah

74%

Winning margin

Kelantan United wins by 2+

11%

Kedah wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kelantan United 1+ goals

73%

Kelantan United 2+ goals

38%

Kelantan United 3+ goals

14%

Kedah 1+ goals

86%

Kedah 2+ goals

58%

Kedah 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kelantan United (draw refunded)

33%

Kedah (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kelantan United at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Kedah away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kelantan United attack 0.71 + Kedah defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kedah attack 1.73 + Kelantan United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kelantan United scores more

26%

level

22%

Kedah scores more

52%

Kedah at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff