Kelantan FA 0–4 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Kelantan FA

FT

0 – 4

Johor Darul Takzim FC

11/9/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Sultan Mohammad IV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kelantan FA6%

×Draw13%

Johor Darul Takzim FC80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelantan FAExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

2.69

Kelantan FA

0.63

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.69

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 327% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

0.67

creates per match

2.88

2.50

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Kelantan FA

0.67

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.88

allows per match

Kelantan FA

2.50

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelantan FA+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelantan FA ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–213%

0–312%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–32%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kelantan FA or draw

20%

Kelantan FA or Johor Darul Takzim FC

87%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

94%

Winning margin

Kelantan FA wins by 2+

2%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Kelantan FA 1+ goals

47%

Kelantan FA 2+ goals

13%

Kelantan FA 3+ goals

3%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

93%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

74%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Kelantan FA (draw refunded)

7%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelantan FA at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelantan FA attack 0.67 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.88 + Kelantan FA defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kelantan FA scores more

6%

level

13%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

80%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff