KelA / Akatemia 0–10 Klubi-04: Result & Stats

KelA / Akatemia

0 – 10

HT: 0 – 3

Klubi-04

L. Rippon 69', 9'

A. Sabwele 64'

S. Baranov 63', 15', 7'

E. Ingman 61'

I. Toivonen 52'

H. Noori 39'

K. Hardén 17'

4/17/2025

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundJärvenpää TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KelA / Akatemia5%

×Draw8%

Klubi-0486%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KelA / AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchKlubi-04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

4.20

KelA / Akatemia

1.07

Klubi-04

4.20

Klubi-04 creates 293% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

5.40

3.00

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

KelA / Akatemia

1.75

Klubi-04

5.40

allows per match

KelA / Akatemia

3.00

Klubi-04

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KelA / Akatemia+0.00on par

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KelA / Akatemia ↓

Klubi-04 →

0–01%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–48%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

KelA / Akatemia or draw

14%

KelA / Akatemia or Klubi-04

92%

Draw or Klubi-04

95%

Winning margin

KelA / Akatemia wins by 2+

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

72%

Team goals

KelA / Akatemia 1+ goals

66%

KelA / Akatemia 2+ goals

29%

KelA / Akatemia 3+ goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals

98%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

91%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

76%

Draw no bet

KelA / Akatemia (draw refunded)

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KelA / Akatemia at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 5.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KelA / Akatemia attack 1.75 + Klubi-04 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Klubi-04 attack 5.40 + KelA / Akatemia defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 86%?"

KelA / Akatemia scores more

level

Klubi-04 scores more

86%

Klubi-04 at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

17'

39'

52'

61'

63'

64'

69'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff