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Keith vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn — FA Cup 2019

Keith
Keith
AET
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
12/26/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundKynoch Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Keith22%
×Draw20%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keith
1.31
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.25

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Keith
1.50
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00

allows per match

Keith
2.50
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.13

finishing

Keith+0.00on par
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keith ↓

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Keith or draw
42%
Keith or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
80%
Draw or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
78%

Winning margin

Keith wins by 2+
9%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Keith 1+ goals
73%
Keith 2+ goals
38%
Keith 3+ goals
14%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals
89%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals
65%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Keith (draw refunded)
27%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keith at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keith attack 1.50 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 2.00 + Keith defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Keith scores more
22%
level
20%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more
58%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Keith 4–2 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Keith beat Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 4-2 in FA Cup on December 26, 2020.

The match was played at Kynoch Park in Keith.