Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Keith vs Camelon Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Keith
Keith
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Camelon Juniors
Camelon Juniors
Unknown 90'
Unknown 90'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundKynoch Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Keith12%
×Draw14%
Camelon Juniors74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keith
1.32
Camelon Juniors
3.32

Camelon Juniors creates 152% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Keith
1.50
Camelon Juniors
4.14

allows per match

Keith
2.50
Camelon Juniors
1.14

finishing

Keith+0.00on par
Camelon Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keith ↓

Camelon Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Keith or draw
26%
Keith or Camelon Juniors
86%
Draw or Camelon Juniors
88%

Winning margin

Keith wins by 2+
5%
Camelon Juniors wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Keith 1+ goals
73%
Keith 2+ goals
38%
Keith 3+ goals
15%
Camelon Juniors 1+ goals
96%
Camelon Juniors 2+ goals
84%
Camelon Juniors 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Keith (draw refunded)
14%
Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keith at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Camelon Juniors away — creates 4.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keith attack 1.50 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Camelon Juniors attack 4.14 + Keith defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Keith scores more
12%
level
14%
Camelon Juniors scores more
74%

Camelon Juniors at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Camelon Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
89'
90'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Keith 1–1 Camelon Juniors

Keith and Camelon Juniors drew 1-1 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: ? (90', 90').

The match was played at Kynoch Park in Keith.