Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kehlen vs The Belval Belvaux — Cup 2020

Kehlen
Kehlen
FT
1 – 5
The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStade Albert Berchem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kehlen21%
×Draw17%
The Belval Belvaux62%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kehlen
1.81
The Belval Belvaux
3.06

The Belval Belvaux creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kehlen
0.88
The Belval Belvaux
3.50

allows per match

Kehlen
2.63
The Belval Belvaux
2.75

finishing

Kehlen+0.00on par
The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kehlen ↓

The Belval Belvaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Kehlen or draw
38%
Kehlen or The Belval Belvaux
83%
Draw or The Belval Belvaux
79%

Winning margin

Kehlen wins by 2+
10%
The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Kehlen 1+ goals
84%
Kehlen 2+ goals
54%
Kehlen 3+ goals
27%
The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
95%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
80%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Kehlen (draw refunded)
26%
The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kehlen at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

The Belval Belvaux away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kehlen attack 0.88 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

The Belval Belvaux attack 3.50 + Kehlen defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kehlen scores more
21%
level
17%
The Belval Belvaux scores more
62%

The Belval Belvaux at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "The Belval Belvaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kehlen vs The Belval Belvaux

The Belval Belvaux beat Kehlen 5-1 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Albert Berchem in Kehlen.