Kehlen 2–1 Stengefort: Result & Stats | Cup

Kehlen

AET

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stengefort

9/12/2021

Cup · 1st RoundStade Albert Berchem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kehlen10%

×Draw13%

Stengefort77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KehlenExpected goals in this matchStengefort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

3.15

Kehlen

1.10

Stengefort

3.15

Stengefort creates 186% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

0.88

creates per match

3.67

2.63

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kehlen

0.88

Stengefort

3.67

allows per match

Kehlen

2.63

Stengefort

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kehlen+0.00on par

Stengefort+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kehlen ↓

Stengefort →

0–01%

0–15%

0–27%

0–38%

0–46%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Kehlen or draw

23%

Kehlen or Stengefort

87%

Draw or Stengefort

90%

Winning margin

Kehlen wins by 2+

Stengefort wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Kehlen 1+ goals

67%

Kehlen 2+ goals

30%

Kehlen 3+ goals

10%

Stengefort 1+ goals

96%

Stengefort 2+ goals

81%

Stengefort 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Kehlen (draw refunded)

12%

Stengefort (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kehlen at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Stengefort away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kehlen attack 0.88 + Stengefort defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Stengefort attack 3.67 + Kehlen defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Kehlen scores more

10%

level

13%

Stengefort scores more

77%

Stengefort at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Stengefort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff