Kehlen 2–1 Jeunesse Useldange: Result & Stats | Cup

Kehlen

2 – 1

Jeunesse Useldange

9/11/2022

Cup · 1st RoundStade Albert Berchem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kehlen16%

×Draw16%

Jeunesse Useldange68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KehlenExpected goals in this matchJeunesse Useldange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.98

Kehlen

1.44

Jeunesse Useldange

2.98

Jeunesse Useldange creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

0.88

creates per match

3.33

2.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kehlen

0.88

Jeunesse Useldange

3.33

allows per match

Kehlen

2.63

Jeunesse Useldange

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kehlen+0.00on par

Jeunesse Useldange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kehlen ↓

Jeunesse Useldange →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Kehlen or draw

32%

Kehlen or Jeunesse Useldange

84%

Draw or Jeunesse Useldange

84%

Winning margin

Kehlen wins by 2+

Jeunesse Useldange wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Kehlen 1+ goals

76%

Kehlen 2+ goals

42%

Kehlen 3+ goals

18%

Jeunesse Useldange 1+ goals

95%

Jeunesse Useldange 2+ goals

79%

Jeunesse Useldange 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Kehlen (draw refunded)

19%

Jeunesse Useldange (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kehlen at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Jeunesse Useldange away — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kehlen attack 0.88 + Jeunesse Useldange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jeunesse Useldange attack 3.33 + Kehlen defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kehlen scores more

16%

level

16%

Jeunesse Useldange scores more

68%

Jeunesse Useldange at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Jeunesse Useldange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff