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Kehlen vs Berdenia Berbourg — Cup 2020

Kehlen
Kehlen
FT
1 – 0
Berdenia Berbourg
Berdenia Berbourg
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Albert Berchem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kehlen24%
×Draw19%
Berdenia Berbourg57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kehlen
1.52
Berdenia Berbourg
2.40

Berdenia Berbourg creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kehlen
0.88
Berdenia Berbourg
2.17

allows per match

Kehlen
2.63
Berdenia Berbourg
2.17

finishing

Kehlen+0.00on par
Berdenia Berbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kehlen ↓

Berdenia Berbourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kehlen or draw
43%
Kehlen or Berdenia Berbourg
81%
Draw or Berdenia Berbourg
76%

Winning margin

Kehlen wins by 2+
11%
Berdenia Berbourg wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Kehlen 1+ goals
78%
Kehlen 2+ goals
45%
Kehlen 3+ goals
20%
Berdenia Berbourg 1+ goals
91%
Berdenia Berbourg 2+ goals
69%
Berdenia Berbourg 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Kehlen (draw refunded)
30%
Berdenia Berbourg (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kehlen at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Berdenia Berbourg away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kehlen attack 0.88 + Berdenia Berbourg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Berdenia Berbourg attack 2.17 + Kehlen defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kehlen scores more
24%
level
19%
Berdenia Berbourg scores more
57%

Berdenia Berbourg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Berdenia Berbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kehlen vs Berdenia Berbourg

Kehlen beat Berdenia Berbourg 1-0 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Albert Berchem in Kehlen.