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Keflavik vs Kórdrengir — Cup 2019

Keflavik
Keflavik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
4/30/2019CupCup · 16th FinalsNettóvöllurinn (Keflavík, Reykjanesbær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Keflavik52%
×Draw25%
Kórdrengir23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
1.56
Kórdrengir
0.95

Keflavik creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Keflavik
2.80
Kórdrengir
1.00

allows per match

Keflavik
0.90
Kórdrengir
0.33

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
77%
Keflavik or Kórdrengir
75%
Draw or Kórdrengir
48%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
27%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
79%
Keflavik 2+ goals
46%
Keflavik 3+ goals
21%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
61%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
25%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
69%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.80 + Kórdrengir defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kórdrengir attack 1.00 + Keflavik defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Keflavik scores more
52%
level
25%
Kórdrengir scores more
23%

Keflavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Keflavik 1–0 Kórdrengir

Keflavik beat Kórdrengir 1-0 in Cup on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Nettóvöllurinn (Keflavík, Reykjanesbær).