Keflavik 2–3 IR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

IR Reykjavik

S. Kamel 69'

K. Sigfússon 45+1'

B. Bjarkason 35'

G. Magnússon 16', 13'

9/22/2024

1. Deild · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsHS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Keflavik55%

×Draw20%

IR Reykjavik25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchIR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.54

Keflavik

2.35

IR Reykjavik

1.54

Keflavik creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

2.75

creates per match

1.73

1.35

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Keflavik

2.75

IR Reykjavik

1.73

allows per match

Keflavik

1.35

IR Reykjavik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

IR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

75%

Keflavik or IR Reykjavik

80%

Draw or IR Reykjavik

45%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

34%

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

90%

Keflavik 2+ goals

68%

Keflavik 3+ goals

41%

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

79%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

45%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

69%

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.75 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.35

IR Reykjavik attack 1.73 + Keflavik defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Keflavik scores more

55%

level

20%

IR Reykjavik scores more

25%

Keflavik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

13'

16'

35'

38'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

S. Kamel← A. Guðmundsson

46'

S. Magnússon← R. Eysteinsson

46'

B. Helgason← G. Magnússon

61'

A. Kristinsson← H. Matthíasson

61'

R. Punyed← G. Gíslason

69'

S. Kamel

73'

S. Pálsson← M. Theodórsson

77'

F. Elvarsson

78'

M. McAusland

79'

G. Gudmundsson

83'

A. Kostic← K. Marteinsson

86'

V. Hákonarson← M. Mladen

90'

V. Hakonarson

90+4'

E. Osmani← K. Sigfússon

Keflavik

IR

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sigfússon

▼

Mladen

▼

Eysteinss

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

46'▲S. Kamel←▼A. Guðmundsson

46'▲S. Magnússon←▼R. Eysteinsson

86'▲V. Hákonarson←▼M. Mladen

90+4'▲E. Osmani←▼K. Sigfússon

Keflavik substitutes

KamelMagnússonHákonarsonOsmaniDiawBjarnasonHerbertsson

Manager: A. Guðnason

46'▲B. Helgason←▼G. Magnússon

61'▲A. Kristinsson←▼H. Matthíasson

61'▲R. Punyed←▼G. Gíslason

73'▲S. Pálsson←▼M. Theodórsson

83'▲A. Kostic←▼K. Marteinsson

IR Reykjavik substitutes

HelgasonKristinssonPunyedPálssonKosticFarahaniHlynsson