Keflavik 3–2 IA Akranes: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

IA Akranes

J. Gibbs 64'

P. Johannesen 45+4' (pen)

K. Williams 28'

J. Vall 54'

Á. Heimisson 18'

10/2/2022

Úrvalsdeild · Relegation Round - 1HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Keflavik42%

×Draw22%

IA Akranes36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchIA Akranes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.67

Keflavik

1.81

IA Akranes

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.37

creates per match

1.44

1.89

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Keflavik

1.37

IA Akranes

1.44

allows per match

Keflavik

1.89

IA Akranes

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

IA Akranes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

IA Akranes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

64%

Keflavik or IA Akranes

78%

Draw or IA Akranes

58%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

22%

IA Akranes wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

84%

Keflavik 2+ goals

54%

Keflavik 3+ goals

27%

IA Akranes 1+ goals

81%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

50%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

54%

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

IA Akranes away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 1.37 + IA Akranes defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.81

IA Akranes attack 1.44 + Keflavik defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Keflavik scores more

42%

level

22%

IA Akranes scores more

36%

Keflavik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

18'

28'

45'

45+4'

P. JohannesenPenalty

54'

J. Vall

64'

J. Gibbs

76'

A. Róbertsson← K. Williams

76'

D. Valsson← A. Pálsson

77'

79'

89'

90+4'

90+4'

Keflavik

IA

1

Einarsson

3

⚽

18

10

2

4

27

⚽

22

9

19

17

1

25

4

26

5

7

6

77

⚽

Johannese

10

⚽

▼

Williams

24

▼

Pálsson

23

⚽

Gibbs

Manager: S. Eyjólfsson

76'▲A. Róbertsson←▼K. Williams

76'▲D. Valsson←▼A. Pálsson

Keflavik substitutes

9Róbertsson14Valsson11Jónsson12Gissurarson16Guðmundsson22MagnússonStefánsson

Manager: J. Hauksson

IA Akranes substitutes

6Gíslason11Bartalsstovu12Ólafsson21Haraldsson24Jónsson39Lindberg44Davey