Keflavik 1–1 Fylkir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Keflavik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fylkir

M. Alghoul 4'

T. Óskarsson 87'

6/9/2025

1. Deild · Round 7HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Keflavik49%

×Draw21%

Fylkir30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchFylkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.64

Keflavik

2.13

Fylkir

1.64

Keflavik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

2.73

creates per match

2.00

1.27

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Keflavik

2.73

Fylkir

2.00

allows per match

Keflavik

1.27

Fylkir

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Fylkir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

70%

Keflavik or Fylkir

79%

Draw or Fylkir

51%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

29%

Fylkir wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

88%

Keflavik 2+ goals

63%

Keflavik 3+ goals

35%

Fylkir 1+ goals

81%

Fylkir 2+ goals

49%

Fylkir 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

62%

Fylkir (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.73 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fylkir attack 2.00 + Keflavik defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Keflavik scores more

49%

level

21%

Fylkir scores more

30%

Keflavik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Alghoul

78'

M. Brigic

87'

T. Óskarsson

89'

S. Olafsson

Keflavik

Fylkir

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

Manager: A. Guðnason