Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kedah vs Perak — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kedah
Kedahadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Perak
Perak
8/18/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Darul Aman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kedah55%
×Draw20%
Perak25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedah
2.29
Perak
1.51

Kedah creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kedah
2.08
Perak
1.25

allows per match

Kedah
1.77
Perak
2.50

finishing

Kedah+0.00on par
Perak+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedah ↓

Perak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kedah or draw
75%
Kedah or Perak
80%
Draw or Perak
45%

Winning margin

Kedah wins by 2+
34%
Perak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kedah 1+ goals
90%
Kedah 2+ goals
66%
Kedah 3+ goals
40%
Perak 1+ goals
78%
Perak 2+ goals
44%
Perak 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kedah (draw refunded)
69%
Perak (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Perak away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedah attack 2.08 + Perak defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.29

Perak attack 1.25 + Kedah defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kedah scores more
55%
level
20%
Perak scores more
25%

Kedah at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kedah 2 – 1 Perak

Kedah beat Perak 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium Darul Aman in Alor Setar.