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Kedah vs Pahang — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kedah
Kedahadvanced
FT
3 – 2
Pahang
Pahang
11/6/2020Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Darul Aman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kedah40%
×Draw22%
Pahang38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedah
1.82
Pahang
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kedah
2.08
Pahang
1.81

allows per match

Kedah
1.77
Pahang
1.56

finishing

Kedah+0.00on par
Pahang+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedah ↓

Pahang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kedah or draw
62%
Kedah or Pahang
78%
Draw or Pahang
60%

Winning margin

Kedah wins by 2+
21%
Pahang wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kedah 1+ goals
84%
Kedah 2+ goals
54%
Kedah 3+ goals
27%
Pahang 1+ goals
83%
Pahang 2+ goals
53%
Pahang 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kedah (draw refunded)
51%
Pahang (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Pahang away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedah attack 2.08 + Pahang defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

Pahang attack 1.81 + Kedah defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kedah scores more
40%
level
22%
Pahang scores more
38%

Kedah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Kedah 3–2 Pahang

Kedah beat Pahang 3-2 in Malaysia Cup on November 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadium Darul Aman in Alor Setar.