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Kedah vs Kuala Lumpur FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kedah
Kedahadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FA
11/22/2024Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Darul Aman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kedah44%
×Draw22%
Kuala Lumpur FA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedah
1.86
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.60

Kedah creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kedah
2.08
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.43

allows per match

Kedah
1.77
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.64

finishing

Kedah+0.00on par
Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedah ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kedah or draw
66%
Kedah or Kuala Lumpur FA
78%
Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA
56%

Winning margin

Kedah wins by 2+
24%
Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kedah 1+ goals
84%
Kedah 2+ goals
55%
Kedah 3+ goals
28%
Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
80%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
47%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kedah (draw refunded)
57%
Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedah attack 2.08 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.43 + Kedah defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kedah scores more
44%
level
22%
Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
34%

Kedah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kedah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedah vs Kuala Lumpur FA

Kedah beat Kuala Lumpur FA 3-2 in Malaysia Cup on November 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadium Darul Aman in Alor Setar.