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Kecskeméti TE vs Sturm Graz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kecskeméti TE
Kecskeméti TE
FT
2 – 1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Papillon Sports Centre - Field A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kecskeméti TE58%
×Draw22%
Sturm Graz20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE
1.94
Sturm Graz
1.05

Kecskeméti TE creates 85% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE
2.67
Sturm Graz
0.60

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE
1.50
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

Kecskeméti TE+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE or draw
80%
Kecskeméti TE or Sturm Graz
78%
Draw or Sturm Graz
42%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE wins by 2+
34%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE 1+ goals
86%
Kecskeméti TE 2+ goals
58%
Kecskeméti TE 3+ goals
30%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
65%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
28%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE (draw refunded)
74%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE attack 2.67 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sturm Graz attack 0.60 + Kecskeméti TE defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kecskeméti TE scores more
58%
level
22%
Sturm Graz scores more
20%

Kecskeméti TE at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kecskeméti TE vs Sturm Graz

Kecskeméti TE beat Sturm Graz 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Papillon Sports Centre - Field A in Belek.