Kecskeméti TE 2–0 Csakvar: Result & Stats

Kecskeméti TE

2 – 0

Csakvar

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Széktói Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kecskeméti TE61%

×Draw19%

Csakvar20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kecskeméti TEExpected goals in this matchCsakvar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.25

Kecskeméti TE

2.33

Csakvar

1.25

Kecskeméti TE creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE

2.67

Csakvar

1.00

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE

1.50

Csakvar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kecskeméti TE+0.00on par

Csakvar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE ↓

Csakvar →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE or draw

80%

Kecskeméti TE or Csakvar

81%

Draw or Csakvar

39%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE wins by 2+

39%

Csakvar wins by 2+

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE 1+ goals

90%

Kecskeméti TE 2+ goals

67%

Kecskeméti TE 3+ goals

41%

Csakvar 1+ goals

71%

Csakvar 2+ goals

36%

Csakvar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE (draw refunded)

76%

Csakvar (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Csakvar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE attack 2.67 + Csakvar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Csakvar attack 1.00 + Kecskeméti TE defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kecskeméti TE scores more

61%

level

19%

Csakvar scores more

20%

Kecskeméti TE at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff