Kecskeméti TE II 2–0 Szolnoki MAV FC

Kecskeméti TE II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Szolnoki MAV FC

9/28/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 10Epreskert utcai focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II42%

×Draw24%

Szolnoki MAV FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kecskeméti TE IIExpected goals in this matchSzolnoki MAV FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.41

Kecskeméti TE II

1.59

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.41

Kecskeméti TE II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.11

1.71

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II

1.41

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.11

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II

1.71

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw

66%

Kecskeméti TE II or Szolnoki MAV FC

76%

Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC

58%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

21%

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

80%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

47%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

21%

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals

76%

Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals

41%

Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

55%

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.11 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

42%

level

24%

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more

34%

Kecskeméti TE II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff