Kecskeméti TE II 0–1 PTE-PEAC: Result & Stats

Kecskeméti TE II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PTE-PEAC

2/12/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 21Epreskert utcai focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II32%

×Draw25%

PTE-PEAC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kecskeméti TE IIExpected goals in this matchPTE-PEAC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.52

Kecskeméti TE II

1.29

PTE-PEAC

1.52

PTE-PEAC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.33

1.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II

1.41

PTE-PEAC

1.33

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II

1.71

PTE-PEAC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

PTE-PEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

PTE-PEAC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw

57%

Kecskeméti TE II or PTE-PEAC

75%

Draw or PTE-PEAC

68%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

14%

PTE-PEAC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

72%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

37%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

14%

PTE-PEAC 1+ goals

78%

PTE-PEAC 2+ goals

45%

PTE-PEAC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

43%

PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

PTE-PEAC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + PTE-PEAC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

PTE-PEAC attack 1.33 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

32%

level

25%

PTE-PEAC scores more

43%

PTE-PEAC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "PTE-PEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff