Kecskeméti TE II 1–6 MTK Budapest II

Kecskeméti TE II

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

MTK Budapest II

8/21/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 5Epreskert utcai focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II29%

×Draw23%

MTK Budapest II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kecskeméti TE IIExpected goals in this matchMTK Budapest II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.75

Kecskeméti TE II

1.33

MTK Budapest II

1.75

MTK Budapest II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

1.41

creates per match

1.78

1.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II

1.41

MTK Budapest II

1.78

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II

1.71

MTK Budapest II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

MTK Budapest II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw

53%

Kecskeméti TE II or MTK Budapest II

77%

Draw or MTK Budapest II

71%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

13%

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

74%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

38%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

15%

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals

83%

MTK Budapest II 2+ goals

52%

MTK Budapest II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

38%

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

MTK Budapest II away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

MTK Budapest II attack 1.78 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

29%

level

23%

MTK Budapest II scores more

47%

MTK Budapest II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff