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Kecskeméti TE II vs Monori Se — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 4 – 1
Monori Se
Monori Se
8/14/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 3Epreskert utcai focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II31%
×Draw23%
Monori Se46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
1.40
Monori Se
1.74

Monori Se creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.41
Monori Se
1.77

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.71
Monori Se
1.40

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Monori Se+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Monori Se →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
54%
Kecskeméti TE II or Monori Se
77%
Draw or Monori Se
69%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
14%
Monori Se wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
75%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
41%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
17%
Monori Se 1+ goals
82%
Monori Se 2+ goals
52%
Monori Se 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
41%
Monori Se (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Monori Se away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.40 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + Monori Se defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Monori Se attack 1.77 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
31%
level
23%
Monori Se scores more
46%

Monori Se at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Monori Se will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kecskeméti TE II vs Monori Se

Kecskeméti TE II beat Monori Se 4-3 in NB III - Northwest on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Epreskert utcai focipálya in Kecskemét.