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Kecskeméti TE II vs Majosi — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Majosi
Majosi
9/25/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 9Epreskert utcai focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II56%
×Draw22%
Majosi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
1.94
Majosi
1.15

Kecskeméti TE II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.41
Majosi
0.58

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.71
Majosi
2.47

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Majosi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Majosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
78%
Kecskeméti TE II or Majosi
78%
Draw or Majosi
44%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
32%
Majosi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
86%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
58%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
30%
Majosi 1+ goals
68%
Majosi 2+ goals
32%
Majosi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
71%
Majosi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Majosi away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + Majosi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Majosi attack 0.58 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
56%
level
22%
Majosi scores more
22%

Kecskeméti TE II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kecskeméti TE II vs Majosi

Majosi beat Kecskeméti TE II 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Epreskert utcai focipálya in Kecskemét.