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Kecskeméti TE II vs Honvéd II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Honvéd II
Honvéd II
11/18/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 16Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II42%
×Draw24%
Honvéd II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
1.58
Honvéd II
1.41

Kecskeméti TE II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Honvéd II
1.24

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Honvéd II
1.58

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Honvéd II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Honvéd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
66%
Kecskeméti TE II or Honvéd II
76%
Draw or Honvéd II
58%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
21%
Honvéd II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
79%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
47%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
21%
Honvéd II 1+ goals
76%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
41%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
55%
Honvéd II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Honvéd II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.57 + Honvéd II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Honvéd II attack 1.24 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
42%
level
24%
Honvéd II scores more
34%

Kecskeméti TE II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Kecskeméti TE II 1–3 Honvéd II

Honvéd II beat Kecskeméti TE II 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum in Kecskemét.