Keçiörengücü vs Yeni Malatyaspor

Keçiörengücü

CANC

00:00

Yeni Malatyaspor

5/7/2023

1. Lig · Round 37Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Keçiörengücü70%

×Draw17%

Yeni Malatyaspor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.89

Keçiörengücü

2.38

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.89

Keçiörengücü creates 167% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 33 away

1.60

creates per match

0.70

1.08

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

1.60

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.70

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.08

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

88%

Keçiörengücü or Yeni Malatyaspor

83%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

30%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

47%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

91%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

68%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

42%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

59%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

22%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

85%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.38

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

70%

level

17%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

12%

Keçiörengücü at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff